In today’s USDA September Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate reports, indications are pointing to the second largest corn and cotton crops on record. The soybean crop, while up from the August estimate, is still seen well below last year’s record crop.

The corn and soybean production numbers came in higher than pre-report ideas. Private analysts surveyed by Dow Jones ahead of the report showed an average of 10.301 billion bushels, with an average yield of 138.8 bushels per acre for corn. The survey showed an average pre-report guess for soybean production of 2.811 billion bushels with a yield of 38.9 bushels per acre.

Following are highlights of both USDA reports:

Corn

• Corn production is forecast at 10.639 billion bushels, up 3% percent (289 million bushels) from last month, but 10% below 2004.
• Based on conditions as of September 1, corn yields are expected to average 143.2 bushels per acre, up 4.0 bushels from August but 17.2 bushels below the record high last year.
• Forecast corn yields are down from the previous year in all Corn Belt States except Michigan and Wisconsin. Compared with last year, the largest yield decreases are expected in Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky and New Jersey.
• Farmers expect to harvest 74.3 million acres of corn for grain, down 50,000 acres from August, but up 1% from 2004.
• Projected beginning stocks of 2005/06 corn rose 15 million bushels due to a reduction in 2004/05 exports.
• Projected 2005/06 exports are up 50 million bushels due to increased imports by Mexico and Egypt.
• Feed and residual use rises 75 million bushels, but other domestic consumption is unchanged.
• Corn ending stocks are up 179 million bushels from last month, but are 46 million lower than the previous year.
• Corn prices in 2005/06 are projected to average $1.70 to $2.10, down 10 cents on each end from last month, compared with $2.06 for 2004/05.

Soybeans

• Soybean production is forecast at 2.85 billion bushels, up 2% (65 million bushels) from last month based on improved yield prospects. That figure is down 9% from the record crop of 2004.
• Based on September 1 conditions, yields are expected to average 39.6 bushels per acre, up 0.9 bushel from August.
• Adequate moisture across most of the Corn Belt and the Great Plains by the end of the month was a relief for many dry areas, including most of the drought-stricken areas of Illinois and Missouri. The Delta and Southeast also received favorable moisture, maintaining good yield potential in most areas, including a record-high forecast in Louisiana and a record-tying forecast in South Carolina.
• Soybean exports were raised this month due to lower prices and reduced competitor supplies.
• Crush was raised based on improved demand prospects for soybean meal.
• Soybean ending stocks are projected at 205 million bushels, up 25 million from last month.

US soybean prices are projected lower this month:

• Season-average soybean prices for 2005/06 are projected at $5.15 to $6.05 compared with $5.50 – $6.50 per bushel last month.
• Soybean meal prices are projected at $165 to $195 per short ton, down $10 on both ends of the range.
• Soybean oil prices are projected lower at 21.5 to 24.5 cents per pound.

From Agriculture Online

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