Recent popular media stories have sought to raise the specter of a conflict in food versus fuel as our nation moves toward less reliance on costly imported oil.

Had reporters taken a close look at U.S. corn yield statistics, they would discover such a conflict does not and need not exist.

“U.S corn yields have doubled since 1980 and are on a trend line to increase by an average of 2 percent to 2.5 percent per year, adding an additional 160 million bushels a year with no increase in acres,” said Gerald Tumbleson, NCGA president and Minnesota farmer.

The last two years were ones for the record books for corn producers, who produced the two largest crops on record. And despite a projected decrease in acres planted in 2006, yield projections would again put the crop in the top three years on record, resulting in an abundant corn supply for food and fuel.

Let us not forget the United States is sitting on a surplus of 2.4 billion bushels of corn or the equivalent of more than 6 billion gallons of ethanol – more than the total amount of ethanol the industry will produce in 2006. This is after all other uses for corn have been satisfied – food use, export and livestock feed.

There is no shortage of corn, and there will be no shortage of corn as long as the market delivers the price signal for producers to produce. The decrease in planted acres in 2006 comes from surplus production and resulting low prices. The market did not signal more acres and more production at the time planting decisions were being made.

“I can guarantee you there is not and will not be a shortage of corn as long as demand is reflected in the market price,” said Ken McCauley, NCGA first vice president and a Kansas farmer. “We love to grow corn and are very good at it, and our production potential is almost unlimited.”

We have an abundant supply of corn and will continue to have an abundant supply. NCGA projects the nation’s corn producers will easily be producing a 15 billion bushel crop by 2015.

“That means that we can produce a minimum of 16 billion gallons of ethanol or more than 10 percent of our fuel needs and still meet all other market needs for corn,” Tumbleson said.

Kicking up dust with a food versus fuel argument detracts from the very issue U.S. farmers are helping to solve, namely serious energy supply and energy security issues.

Please review the following charts here for more information on future corn production.

By Rick Tolman
NCGA CEO

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