Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.

Were you surprised by USDA’s crop estimates this week? Corn is projected at 11.114 bil. bu., 693 mil. smaller than the record ’04 production. The average yield is 154.7 bu. USDA says the new crop will see 2.25 bil. bu. in exports, a 1.22 bil. carryover, and total consumption at 11.915 bil. USDA expects the year’s average price to be $2.15-$2.55.

The soybean crop was projected by USDA this week at 3.093 bil. bu., about the same as the ’05 crop and slightly less than the ’04 record crop. The average yield is 41.8 bu. The domestic crush will be 1.765 bil. bu, exports will be 1.125 bil., and carryout at 530 mil. USDA estimates the marketing year average farm price will range from $4.90 to $5.90.

Over the past 36 years, Extension’s Darrel Good says, “There has been a tendency for the corn production forecast to increase in Oct. following an increase in Sept. There is a similar, but smaller, tendency for the soybean production forecast. However, with improving crop condition ratings, the market will likely expect a larger bean production forecast in Oct.” Read more.

Darrel Good says, “With prospects for corn inventories to decline significantly this year and the need for US producers to plant more corn in ‘07, cash prices are expected to move significantly higher over the next several months. The best chance for a recovery in soybean prices is with a threat to the So. American crop. Longer term, however, soybean prices may have to work higher to attract more acres into production in So. America.”

How are ’07 & ’08 corn futures changing your thinking about crop rotation? U of IL economist Gary Schnitkey says distant corn futures have risen to ensure corn supplies for ethanol, but bean futures have not risen commensurately to ensure sufficient bean acres. Read more.

Your answer to the previous question will depend upon crop yields in your county says Schnitkey, who analyzed Cornbelt county yields. “As a result, corn production may be more profitable than soybean production over much of the Cornbelt. Therefore, there may be shifting from soybeans to corn in much of the Cornbelt in the next several years.

Unfilled ear tips result from several causes, say Ohio State agronomist Peter Thomison:

1. Ear tips are the last to be pollinated, and pollen shed may have finished earlier.
2. Drought stress may have slowed ear tip silk growth and they missed pollen shed.
3. Japanese and corn rootworm beetles may have clipped those ear tip silks.
4. Ear tip kernels may abort if plant sugars and proteins are limited during development.
5. Heat and moisture stress, N deficiency, disease, and hail can cause nutrient shortages.
6. Excessive cloudiness or plant shading can cause kernel abortion after pollination.
7. Unfertilized ovules appear dried up, aborted kernels have a slight yellowish color.

Your corn might look good, but Purdue’s Bob Nielson says it may have some problems:

1. Late and re-planted fields are showing incomplete kernel set and kernel abortion.
2. Rapid death of the upper canopy before black layer formation reduces yields.
3. Stalk rot is developing where the crop was stressed during grain fill periods.
4. Periods of heavy rainfall caused N loss, and the stalks “fired” early.
5. Read more.

El Nino is here to stay says Meteorologist Elwynn Taylor at Iowa State. Factors, including the sea temperature, indicate “the real thing.” He says it arose quickly, but is uncertain if it would disappear as quickly. Taylor says the El Nino would prevent a bitterly cold winter, with good subsoil moisture recharge.” He says a continuation of El Nino into next June would yield another good corn crop, without a widespread drought.

If you planted biotech corn with Herculex rootworm genetics, your market needs to be a livestock feeder, rather than a river market or grain processor. The genetics are accepted everywhere except the European Union, and shipments of corn, corn gluten, or distillers’ dried grains would be jeopardized if the Herculex traits are found by testors.

USDA’s latest Farm Bill white paper totals the current number and size of US farms. There are 205,000 commercial farms; 1.4 million rural-residence farms; and 528,000 intermediate farms. Commercial farms include those with sales above $250,000. Just under 10% of all operations, generates about 75% of total sales of agricultural products. Despite their large share of farm production, they only own about 29% of farmland.

15,000 farmers in 27 states responded to Nebraska ag economist Brad Lubben on proposed farm policy and said their preference would be to keep farm program payments, instead of replacing those with conservation-oriented income transfer payments.

If you are planting no-till wheat, Ohio State’s Jeff Stachler suggests glyphosate to burn down dandelions and winter annual grasses, just before the wheat emerges. There are no effective herbicides available for rescue after wheat emergence. Read more.

If your farm kid has an aptitude for mechanics and problem solving, enroll him in the Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering at the U of IL. It has been ranked best in the US by U.S. News and World Report, nothing new to Department Head K.C. Ting, who says, “We’re always in the top five, so our program has always been strong.”

Mark your calendar for Dec. 6 & 7, if you are a novice or veteran organic producer. The statewide conference at Bloomington’s Interstate Center will focus on organic grain, specialty crops, livestock production, and marketing strategies. The registration deadline is November 15. Visit the conference website.

Stu Ellis

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