Extension Update is a weekly summary of news from Extension, government, and other attributable sources, focused on marketing, farm management, and other issues that are of interest to Midwestern farm owners and operators.

Have you reached the price targets in your corn marketing plan and pulled that trigger? At Purdue, Chris Hurt says, “We’re seeing corn prices through the central part of the Midwest approaching $3 a bushel, and that’s very much at the high end of the USDA estimate for the year. Up until the last few weeks we’ve all been saying store the corn crop. Now, there should be some consideration by producers, especially those who don’t have sufficient on-farm storage, to look at pricing of that crop out of the field right now.”

Is 2007 the soybean year? Purdue’s Hurt says there will be heavy use and acreage demand. "Because soybean meal is going to be pretty cheap relative to corn, we think we’re going to see stronger soybean meal use and some reduction on the corn use side. The really big adjustment that’s coming for soybeans is the 2007 crop in the US, with the dramatic need to increase corn acreage, probably in the 8-9 mil. acre range. Most of those acres are going to come out of soybeans. All of these factors are beginning to put in place what means higher soybean prices going through this marketing year and into 2007.”

Nearly 3.2 bil. bu. of beans was the USDA Oct. crop estimate, and U of IL Marketing Specialist Darrel Good says that might hold. “History provides little guidance on expected change between the Oct. forecast and the Jan. estimate this year. However, the season-ending crop condition ratings, showing 62% of the crop in good or excellent condition, points to an average yield of 42.8 bu., equal to the USDA’s Oct. forecast.” He would not be surprised if it increased, since a high 18% of the crop was rated excellent.

The South American bean crop is being planted, and Darrel Good says, “The USDA currently projects that the 2007 harvest there will reach 3.85 bil. bu., 2.6% larger than 2006.” A 37 mil. bu. increase is forecast for Brazil, and Darrel says, “The expectation for Brazil reflects an anticipated reduction in acreage and a rebound in average yield.”

Soybean prices are surpassing typical calculations. Darrel Good says “A year ending stocks-to-use ratio of 17.64% suggests that the 2006-07 marketing year average farm price should be near $5.50.” But he says with strong futures prices for other grains, beans may be supported at higher levels than suggested, and he’s using a $5.75 average.

Are you planting more or less beans in 2007? Darrel Good says, “If 2007-08 marketing year ending stocks of soybeans of 250 mil. bu. are adequate, if the 2007 US average yield is 43 bu. per acre, and if there is a market for 3.14 bil. bu. of US soybeans in the 2007-08 marketing year, then harvested acreage in 2007 needs to total 66.1 mil. Planted acreage would need to be about 67.1 mil., 8.465 mil. fewer acres than planted in 2006.” Read more..

Soil temperatures have been remaining below the 50 degree threshold throughout the upper portion of the Cornbelt for the past few days, providing a safety zone against nitrification for farmers ready for fall-applied nitrogen. Extension fertility specialists recommend a stabilizer for any nitrogen application above 50 degrees.

• IL farmers can check soil temperatures.
• “In MN visit here. ":http://climate.umn.edu/doc/soil_temp_fall_N.htm
• MO farmers can find soil temperatures here.

Warmer soils not only waste money for fall nitrogen, but could mean environmental restrictions on farmers, says U of IL Extension’s Bob Frazee. He says, “With agriculture being identified by the IL EPA as the major source of surface water pollution, it is essential that farmers take steps to minimize the runoff of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides.” See also the Agronomy Handbook.

The Asian soybean rust found at Purdue was found among soybean leaves being tested for the fungus. Plant pathologist Greg Shaner said, "What we’ve learned is that even without a tremendous amount of rust at the source, viable rust spores moved several hundred miles over a two-or three-day period. If this had happened earlier in the season when our soybeans were still green, I think we’d be seeing rust all over the place.”

Ear rots and molds are being seen with increasing frequency in the Eastern Cornbelt, say Ohio State agronomists where more than 50% of the crop remains in the field. Diplodia, fusarium, and gibberela are the most common, but management is practically limited to picking hybrids next year that are not susceptible. Read more. Be concerned about the potential presence of mycotoxin in feed corn.

September’s Cattle on Feed report was calculated before corn prices began to rise in early October, and Purdue’s Chris Hurt says the record large inventory came when light weight cattle had little forage left from the summer drought and were being shipped to feedlots with the hope it would coincide with the harvest lows in the corn market. Oops!

Chris Hurt says the impact is large. “As a simple example, assume that higher feed prices lowered calf-prices by $10/cwt on each 500 lb. calf for one year. This is $50 per head multiplied by the 37.9 mil. head in the calf crop or $1.9 bil. that moves from cow-calf producers to crop producers primarily as a result of the growth in ethanol production. Read his newsletter.

A fall soil test can identify acidity problems, and may recommend some limestone. U of IL Extension’s Robert Bellm says check calcium carbonate equivalents in the state Ag Department lime handbook. Compare values, grind, and prices from different quarries to get the best price.

Stu Ellis