A strong El Niño event is keeping winter weather mild in the western Midwest and Great Plains this year and will likely also result in favorable precipitation for corn production in those regions this summer, says Mike Palecki, a regional climatologist at the Midwestern Regional Climate Center.

An El Niño event occurs when warmer than normal water temperatures develop in the tropical East Pacific Ocean. “The western Midwest and the Great Plains tend to have greater than normal precipitation during the summer after an El Niño peaks, and the El Niño is peaking right now,” says Palecki. “However, if the El Niño continues to remain strong throughout the winter, the growing areas in the Great Plains and Midwest would have a tendency to have a drier spring than normal, which would gradually give way to a wetter summer.”

Weather-wise, a lot could change between now and corn planting time, however. “Most of the Corn Belt is doing quite well in regards to moisture recharge so far,” says Palecki. “It’s only in the Dakotas where groundwater recharge is currently short.”

A strong El Niño event also typically brings warmer than normal temperatures to the Midwest during the winter, which is what the Great Plains and Midwest has recently been experiencing, says Palecki. He adds that the warmer temperatures—if they persist throughout the rest of the winter—could allow more insect pests to survive over winter than would normally survive.

Over the last few decades, the entire globe has been undergoing a warming trend, says Palecki. “In the U.S., western states have been experiencing a warming trend during summer,” he says. “However, no large warming trend has yet to be seen during the summer months in the Midwest.”

An El Niño can also bring too much rain to the Great Plains and western Midwest, like it did in 1993, when there was major flooding, says Palecki. “However, it’s still too far out to make that prediction yet,” he adds.

For more information on temperature and precipitation forecasts for your area, visit the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center Web site »

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