U.S. farmers may plant 12 percent more corn this year after demand for grain-based ethanol pushed prices to the highest in a decade, analysts said.
About 87.94 million acres will be planted with corn, up from 78.327 million in 2006, according to the average estimate of 22 analysts in a Bloomberg survey. The increased acreage follows a 75 percent surge in corn prices in the past year as more ethanol- production facilities are built and demand increases for the nation’s largest crop.
Soybean acres may fall 8.4 percent to 69.17 million from 75.522 million as farmers switch to corn, according to the survey. The U.S. Department of Agriculture is scheduled to release its own survey of farmers’ planting intentions at 8:30 a.m. on March 30 in Washington.
``The rise in corn is completely because of the ethanol industry,’’ said Randy Mittelstaedt, a grain analyst for R.J. O’Brien & Associates in Chicago. ``There’s a huge shift in acres for corn.’’
Soybean prices are up 33 percent in the past year on speculation U.S. growers, the world’s biggest producers of both crops, will switch acres to more-profitable corn.
Corn growers will see an average net return of $334 an acre this year, up from $125 last year, USDA Chief Economist Keith Collins has said. Net profit from soybeans will rise to $198 an acre from $120, according to Collins.
Over the past 22 years, the USDA’s March survey has overestimated the planted corn acreage and underestimated soybeans two-thirds of the time. The usual culprit is wet spring weather, which interferes with corn planting and prompts farmers to substitute soybeans rather than have a late-blooming corn crop reproducing in the hottest days of summer, endangering yields.
The March 30 report is about planting intentions and could change. Weather and futures prices are factors that may influence how many acres are devoted to each crop, Mittelstaedt said.
``What they think they’re going to plant and what actually gets planted are two different things,’’ he said. ``Weather is a critical factor. If they have big adjustments in market prices, that could change’’ planting intentions, he said.
Corn futures for May delivery fell 2.5 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $3.90 a bushel at 10:17 a.m. on the Chicago Board of Trade. Prices are little changed this year. May soybeans rose 5.5 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $7.625 a bushel. Prices are up 9.4 percent since Jan. 1.
Spring-wheat plantings across the northern Great Plains may fall 9.3 percent to 13.51 million acres as growers also switch to corn, according to the survey. Durum wheat plantings may rise 7.2 percent to 2 million acres, according to the analysts.
``Clearly you’re going to see acres switch to corn from multiple crops,’’ Mittelstaedt said. ``They’ll pull some spring- wheat acres out of the northern Plains.’’
Wheat for May delivery in Chicago rose 1 cent, or 0.2 percent, to $4.55 a bushel. Futures have gained 33 percent from a year ago.
The U.S. is the biggest exporter of wheat and the third- largest producer behind China and India.
The USDA projections that will be released March 30 are based on a survey of about 80,000 producers taken during the first two weeks of March. The government will also release quarterly estimates of grain stockpiles, reflecting supplies on hand March 1.
Corn stockpiles are expected to have fallen 14 percent to 6.02 billion, analysts said. Soybean supplies may have risen 7.3 percent to a record 1.79 million bushels, more than double the reserves three years ago.
Total wheat stockpiles are expected to have declined 9.1 percent to 883.3 million bushels, reflecting a 14 percent decline in total wheat production in the marketing year that ends May 31, according to USDA data.
SOURCE: Bloomberg.com