The outlook for fertilizer prices, particularly nitrogen (N) fertilizer prices is bullish, says Dave Coppess, Heartland Co-op, vice-president, sales and marketing, West Des Moines, IA.

“In the U.S. there is still very strong N demand projected, even if corn acres drop somewhat,” says Coppess. “The demand for N isn’t going to go away anytime soon. We are anticipating N fertilizer price increases to continue this fall and into next spring. As of Oct. 24, anhydrous ammonia is selling for $520/ton; I could be wrong, but I’m projecting it to be $600/ton next spring.”

The current high fertilizer prices are being driven by strong global demand from China and India in addition to a forecast for continued strong U.S. demand, says Coppess. “We do anticipate more acres of soybeans, but I don’t think the cost of N will be a deterrent to growing corn,” he says. “Even at $600/ton, the higher cost for N would be equivalent to about 3 bu./acre of corn — not enough by itself to discourage the farmer from growing corn.”

N prices will likely swing higher this spring, agrees Sebastian Braum, West Coast agronomist for Yara North America. “N prices will probably stay flat through winter, but there’s going to be a significant upswing in prices for 28% UAN and anhydrous ammonia,” says Braum. “These products will likely be even more expensive next spring than they are right now.”

To avoid paying higher prices in the spring, farmers in the northern Corn Belt would do well to apply anhydrous ammonia this fall “if soil temperatures are cool enough and they can do it responsibly,” advises Braum. “They should also try to pre-pay for some fertilizer now if their retailer will let them,” he adds. “That way, farmers could also save on some tax dollars in areas where they’ve had good yields this year.”