Cool sea-surface temperatures continue to expand in Pacific waters, signaling a strengthening La Niña weather pattern that is typically associated with a dry spring in the Midwest, says Jim Angel, Illinois State climatologist.

“La Niña is gaining strength and likely to persist throughout the winter months on into spring and summer,” says Angel. “There’s a lot of cold water over a large area, so it looks like La Niña will last for awhile and could be a significant player in determining the 2008 crop.”

Still, La Niña weather patterns don’t always bring bad news for Midwestern corn and soybean growers. “The Midwest has a slight tendency to be on the wet side during a La Niña winter, so soil-moisture recharge is generally better than average heading into spring,” points out Angel. “Especially in the Great Lakes region, La Niña is typically associated with more winter precipitation and storms.”

La Niña threatened in March and April this spring, but it failed to materialize in time to have much impact on Midwestern crops this summer, points out Angel. Next year may be different, however.

“Once these things become established, they usually stick around for awhile,” he explains. “It usually takes a couple of months for an established La Niña to decay, and this one looks to be a pretty sizable event that is unlikely to go away any time soon.”

Many Midwestern farmers remember that a strong La Niña weather event occurred during the 1987-1988 winter and that “1988 brought us the big drought,” says Angel. “However, the jury is still out on the association between a La Niña winter and a drought in the Midwest. It’s not something we can say with a high degree of confidence yet that one will necessarily bring the other.”

Farmers in the southeast are more likely to be hurt by a strong La Niña weather pattern than farmers in the Midwest, however, adds Angel. “The Southeast is the big loser in adequate precipitation events during a La Niña event, especially in the wintertime,” he says. “For us in the Midwest, La Niña typically means a dry spring, and a dry spring isn’t hard to take if winter precipitation and soil moisture levels are adequate.”

Yet, the 1988 drought remains on the minds of many Midwestern farmers heading into 2008. “As we get closer to March, I’m sure there will be a lot of talk about La Niña, which may affect commodity markets,” says Angel. “However, what La Niña brings for 2008 remains to be seen.”

To see the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s latest U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook, issued today at 8:30 a.m. EDT, click here:

For more information about La Niña weather events, click here:

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